Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Bashi 14-2-0

-0.45STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM1.89

STR ACC42%

STR DEF52%

TD AVG6.09

TD ACC35%

TD DEF63%

SUB AVG1.40

Brennan 11-3-0

-1.60STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM0.60

STR ACC25%

STR DEF52%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF33%

SUB AVG1.00

Last 5 in the UFC — Bashi

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Jose Delgado	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	John Yannis	SUB Rear Naked Choke	1	3:39
L	Christian Rodriguez	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Dorian Ramos	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	3:15

Last 5 in the UFC — Brennan

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Francis Marshall	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

79.3%

MODEL — BASHI

20.7%

MODEL — BRENNAN

-383

FAIR — BASHI

+383

FAIR — BRENNAN

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — BASHI10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — BRENNAN

70.4%

25.9%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 112.2%

ROUND 211.1%

ROUND 312.1%

DECISION64.6%

64.6%

GOES THE DISTANCE

83.9%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

72.0%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.6

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Austin Bashi sig strikes O/U 29.5	29.6	52.7% over
Austin Bashi takedowns O/U 2.5	2.88	56.4% over
Lucas Brennan sig strikes O/U 29.5	22.7	27.2% over
Lucas Brennan takedowns O/U 0.5	0.62	46.5% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Featherweight sample too thin (13 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 32.1% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape