Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Cachoeira 13-9-0

-3.10STR DIFF/MIN80% FIN

SLpM4.35

STR ACC44%

STR DEF45%

TD AVG0.37

TD ACC50%

TD DEF69%

SUB AVG0.00

Milošević 9-1-0

+2.17STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM5.70

STR ACC53%

STR DEF72%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF100%

SUB AVG0.00

Last 5 in the UFC — Cachoeira

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Chelsea Chandler	SUB Armbar	1	3:42
L	Klaudia Sygula	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Joselyne Edwards	KO/TKO Punch	1	2:24
W	Josiane Nunes	KO/TKO Punch	1	2:46
L	Jasmine Jasudavicius	SUB Anaconda Choke	3	4:21

Last 5 in the UFC — Milošević

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Nina Milosevic Hailey Cowan	KO/TKO Punch	1	3:41

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

23.6%

MODEL — CACHOEIRA

76.4%

MODEL — MILOŠEVIĆ

+323

FAIR — CACHOEIRA

-323

FAIR — MILOŠEVIĆ

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — CACHOEIRA10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — MILOŠEVIĆ

8.8%

90.8%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 17.5%

ROUND 217.1%

ROUND 327.4%

DECISION48.1%

48.1%

GOES THE DISTANCE

87.2%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

65.2%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.5

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Priscila Cachoeira sig strikes O/U 49.5	48.1	49.2% over
Priscila Cachoeira takedowns O/U 0.5	0.38	31.4% over
Nina Milošević sig strikes O/U 99.5	92.2	43.5% over
Nina Milošević takedowns O/U 0.5	0.58	46.4% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Women's Bantamweight sample too thin (15 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 9.4% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape