Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Delano 17-3-0

+4.93STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM8.43

STR ACC64%

STR DEF68%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF75%

SUB AVG0.00

Magomedov 11-0-0

+2.76STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM4.83

STR ACC48%

STR DEF81%

TD AVG5.17

TD ACC50%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG5.20

Last 5 in the UFC — Delano

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Robert Ruchala	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Manuel Exposito	U-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Magomedov

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Melsik Baghdasaryan	SUB Twister	1	1:17
W	Brahyam Zurcher	KO/TKO Punch	1	1:37

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

20.0%

MODEL — DELANO

80.0%

MODEL — MAGOMEDOV

+399

FAIR — DELANO

-399

FAIR — MAGOMEDOV

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — DELANO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — MAGOMEDOV

24.1%

74.3%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 118.8%

ROUND 218.9%

ROUND 319.7%

DECISION42.7%

42.7%

GOES THE DISTANCE

74.5%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

55.0%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

11.1

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Jose Delano sig strikes O/U 49.5	45.4	46.1% over
Jose Delano takedowns O/U 0.5	0.87	58.4% over
Murtazali Magomedov sig strikes O/U 39.5	41.0	54.6% over
Murtazali Magomedov takedowns O/U 1.5	1.32	37.0% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Featherweight sample too thin (13 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 42.1% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape