Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Elekana 10-2-0

-0.88STR DIFF/MIN67% FIN

SLpM2.71

STR ACC56%

STR DEF46%

TD AVG0.85

TD ACC22%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG0.80

Fernando 14-3-0

+0.50STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM3.71

STR ACC57%

STR DEF51%

TD AVG1.72

TD ACC30%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG0.60

Last 5 in the UFC — Elekana

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Junior Tafa	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	3:18
W	Kevin Christian	SUB Rear Naked Choke	1	3:33
W	Ibo Aslan	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Bogdan Guskov	SUB Guillotine Choke	2	3:33

Last 5 in the UFC — Fernando

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Rafael Tobias	KO/TKO Knee	3	1:10
L	Cesar Almeida	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

41.4%

MODEL — ELEKANA

58.6%

MODEL — FERNANDO

+141

FAIR — ELEKANA

-141

FAIR — FERNANDO

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — ELEKANA10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — FERNANDO

34.2%

63.6%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 112.9%

ROUND 214.2%

ROUND 316.2%

DECISION56.7%

56.7%

GOES THE DISTANCE

82.7%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

67.0%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.2

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Billy Elekana sig strikes O/U 29.5	31.4	56.5% over
Billy Elekana takedowns O/U 1.5	1.17	32.4% over
Lucas Fernando sig strikes O/U 39.5	40.3	53.5% over
Lucas Fernando takedowns O/U 1.5	1.67	50.8% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Light Heavyweight sample too thin (6 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 29.2% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape