Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Grant 18-8-0

+1.54STR DIFF/MIN44% FIN

SLpM5.58

STR ACC45%

STR DEF54%

TD AVG0.95

TD ACC38%

TD DEF65%

SUB AVG0.20

Smith 10-1-0

+1.22STR DIFF/MIN50% FIN

SLpM4.18

STR ACC48%

STR DEF46%

TD AVG2.98

TD ACC53%

TD DEF53%

SUB AVG1.10

Last 5 in the UFC — Grant

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Adrian Luna Martinetti	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Charles Jourdain	SUB Guillotine Choke	1	3:05
W	Da'Mon Blackshear	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Ramon Taveras	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Daniel Marcos	S-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Smith

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	SuYoung You	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	1:04
W	Toshiomi Kazama	KO/TKO Slam	1	4:10
W	Vince Morales	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Aaron Tau	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

32.8%

MODEL — GRANT

67.2%

MODEL — SMITH

+205

FAIR — GRANT

-205

FAIR — SMITH

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — GRANT10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — SMITH

34.3%

62.1%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 18.5%

ROUND 210.1%

ROUND 312.9%

DECISION68.4%

68.4%

GOES THE DISTANCE

88.1%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

76.6%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

13.1

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Davey Grant sig strikes O/U 59.5	53.9	42.0% over
Davey Grant takedowns O/U 0.5	0.86	58.4% over
Elijah Smith sig strikes O/U 49.5	52.0	57.3% over
Elijah Smith takedowns O/U 1.5	1.42	41.7% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Bantamweight sample too thin (20 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 20.9% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape