Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Meta APEX · Las Vegas, NV · 5:00 PM ET · Paramount+
Tale of the Tape
Seokhyeon Ko13-3-0 · UFC
VS
Wellington Turman18-8-0 · UFC
13-3-0 · L1
RECORD (UFC)
18-8-0 · L3
33
AGE
30
5' 10"
HEIGHT
6' 0"
71"
REACH
72"
Southpaw
STANCE
Orthodox
4
UFC BOUTS ON RECORD
9
Strikes & Takedowns
Head-to-head striking and grappling — career rates, last-5 output, and what the fight sim projects for this matchup.
KOTURMAN
STRIKING — CAREER (UFCSTATS)
3.15SIG STRIKES / MIN3.23
50%SIG STRIKE ACC51%
1.93ABSORBED / MIN4.17
62%SIG STRIKE DEF45%
GRAPPLING — CAREER (UFCSTATS)
3.00TAKEDOWNS / 15 MIN1.55
52%TAKEDOWN ACC20%
50%TAKEDOWN DEF42%
7:50CONTROL TIME / FIGHT3:07
LAST 5 FIGHTS — AVG PER FIGHT
47.2SIG STRIKES LANDED43.4
3.0TAKEDOWNS LANDED0.8
SIM PROJECTION — MODEL OUTPUT · 10,000 SIMS
52.5PROJECTED SIG STRIKES30.0
2.16PROJECTED TAKEDOWNS1.06
3.4PROJECTED CONTROL (MIN)1.7
Career rates and bout history: UFCStats.com. Control time averaged over each fighter’s UFC bouts with full round-by-round detail on file (Ko 4 bouts, Turman 9 bouts). Sim projection is the mean across the 10,000 simulated fights — a model projection, not a posted line.
Style Matchup
UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.
Ko 13-3-0
+1.22STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN
SLpM3.15
STR ACC50%
STR DEF62%
TD AVG3.00
TD ACC52%
TD DEF50%
SUB AVG0.20
Turman 18-8-0
-0.94STR DIFF/MIN33% FIN
SLpM3.23
STR ACC51%
STR DEF45%
TD AVG1.55
TD ACC20%
TD DEF42%
SUB AVG0.80
Last 5 in the UFC — Ko
OPPONENT
METHOD
RD
TIME
L
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
U-DEC
3
5:00
W
Phil Rowe
U-DEC
3
5:00
W
Oban Elliott
U-DEC
3
5:00
W
Igor Cavalcanti
U-DEC
3
5:00
Last 5 in the UFC — Turman
OPPONENT
METHOD
RD
TIME
L
Jared Gooden
SUB Rear Naked Choke
2
1:11
L
Randy Brown
U-DEC
3
5:00
L
Andre Petroski
U-DEC
3
5:00
W
Misha Cirkunov
SUB Armbar
2
1:29
W
Sam Alvey
S-DEC
3
5:00
Odds — Moneyline
Per book · BestFightOdds, fetched Nov 6, 2026. Consensus (modal): Seokhyeon Ko -750 · Wellington Turman +450.
BOOK
KO
TURMAN
BetRivers
-1115
+650
BetWay
-649
+450
Caesars
-750
+525
FanDuel
-750
+490
Kalshi
-662
+489
Polymarket
-614
+567
Unibet
-715
+475
COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.
Model
Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.
45.4%
MODEL — TURMAN
17.1%
NO-VIG MARKET
+28.3
EDGE (PTS)
+120
FAIR LINE · BET TO +107
Drivers: striking differential +1.22 vs -0.94, TD avg 3.00 vs 1.55, sub avg 0.20 vs 0.80 (Ko first). Model and market agree on the favourite; the disagreement is the price.
Fight Sim10,000 SIMS
Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.
SIM — KO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — TURMAN
75.1%
22.3%
MARKET (NO-VIG)SIM − MARKET: KO -7.8 · TURMAN +5.2MARKET (NO-VIG)
82.9%
17.1%
FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS
ROUND 15.8%
ROUND 26.4%
ROUND 36.6%
DECISION81.2%
81.2%
GOES THE DISTANCE
91.9%
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS
85.7%
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS
13.8
MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)
SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS
SIM MEAN
P(OVER)
Seokhyeon Ko sig strikes O/U 49.5
52.5
58.0% over
Seokhyeon Ko takedowns O/U 2.5
2.16
37.9% over
Wellington Turman sig strikes O/U 29.5
30.0
51.1% over
Wellington Turman takedowns O/U 0.5
1.06
68.7% over
Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (168 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — the gap vs the market above is the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Welterweight sample too thin (14 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 13.9% vs the calibration target 23.2%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.
News Must-Check
What gets checked before this fight is bettable.
CHECK
STATUS
SOURCE
Weigh-ins
Ko 171 lb; Turman 171 lb - both made weight, bout confirmed
Seokhyeon Ko13-3-0 · UFC
Wellington Turman18-8-0 · UFC