Seokhyeon Ko vs Wellington Turman

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Ko 13-3-0

+1.22STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM3.15

STR ACC50%

STR DEF62%

TD AVG3.00

TD ACC52%

TD DEF50%

SUB AVG0.20

Turman 18-8-0

-0.94STR DIFF/MIN33% FIN

SLpM3.23

STR ACC51%

STR DEF45%

TD AVG1.55

TD ACC20%

TD DEF42%

SUB AVG0.80

Last 5 in the UFC — Ko

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Phil Rowe	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Oban Elliott	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Igor Cavalcanti	U-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Turman

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Jared Gooden	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	1:11
L	Randy Brown	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Andre Petroski	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Misha Cirkunov	SUB Armbar	2	1:29
W	Sam Alvey	S-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

54.6%

MODEL — KO

45.4%

MODEL — TURMAN

-120

FAIR — KO

+120

FAIR — TURMAN

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — KO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — TURMAN

74.4%

22.7%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 15.6%

ROUND 26.2%

ROUND 37.1%

DECISION81.0%

81.0%

GOES THE DISTANCE

92.4%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

85.8%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

13.8

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Seokhyeon Ko sig strikes O/U 49.5	48.0	46.9% over
Seokhyeon Ko takedowns O/U 1.5	2.08	64.4% over
Wellington Turman sig strikes O/U 29.5	27.7	41.9% over
Wellington Turman takedowns O/U 0.5	1.03	67.1% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled Welterweight detail sample (35 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. Sim aggregate SUB share is 15.1% vs the calibration target 28.6%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape