Mantas Kondratavičius vs Wes Schultz

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Kondratavičius 9-1-0

+3.67STR DIFF/MIN50% FIN

SLpM4.97

STR ACC65%

STR DEF57%

TD AVG2.80

TD ACC60%

TD DEF91%

SUB AVG0.90

Schultz 9-4-0

-0.65STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM3.31

STR ACC48%

STR DEF46%

TD AVG2.56

TD ACC25%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG3.60

Last 5 in the UFC — Kondratavičius

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Mantas Kondratavicius Antonio Trocoli	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Mantas Kondratavicius Djani Barbir	KO/TKO Punch	1	1:06

Last 5 in the UFC — Schultz

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Jackson McVey	KO/TKO Knee	1	4:13
W	Ben Johnston	SUB Guillotine Choke	3	1:50
L	Damian Pinas	KO/TKO Punch	1	2:30
W	Mario Mingaj	SUB Suloev Stretch	1	1:51
L	Mansur Abdul-Malik	KO/TKO Elbows	2	3:55

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

43.1%

MODEL — KONDRATAVIČIUS

56.9%

MODEL — SCHULTZ

+132

FAIR — KONDRATAVIČIUS

-132

FAIR — SCHULTZ

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — KONDRATAVIČIUS10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — SCHULTZ

69.8%

30.0%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 121.8%

ROUND 226.1%

ROUND 324.9%

DECISION27.1%

27.1%

GOES THE DISTANCE

68.5%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

41.5%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

10.1

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Mantas Kondratavičius sig strikes O/U 39.5	42.8	56.1% over
Mantas Kondratavičius takedowns O/U 1.5	1.95	58.0% over
Wes Schultz sig strikes O/U 29.5	20.2	22.7% over
Wes Schultz takedowns O/U 0.5	0.63	48.0% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Middleweight sample too thin (7 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 40.5% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape