Gabriel Lorenço vs Alvin Hines

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Lorenço 8-1-0

+5.91STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM9.84

STR ACC46%

STR DEF46%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF100%

SUB AVG0.00

Hines 7-2-0

-2.04STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM5.58

STR ACC32%

STR DEF38%

TD AVG0.90

TD ACC10%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG0.00

Last 5 in the UFC — Lorenço

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Gabriel Lorenco Charlie Cleveland	KO/TKO Punches	1	2:02

Last 5 in the UFC — Hines

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	RJ Harris	KO/TKO Punch	1	1:40
L	Jhonata Diniz	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

75.4%

MODEL — LORENÇO

24.6%

MODEL — HINES

-307

FAIR — LORENÇO

+307

FAIR — HINES

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — LORENÇO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — HINES

89.8%

9.9%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 111.9%

ROUND 227.9%

ROUND 332.8%

DECISION27.5%

27.5%

GOES THE DISTANCE

79.3%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

46.6%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

11.1

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Gabriel Lorenço sig strikes O/U 82.5	76.3	44.2% over
Gabriel Lorenço takedowns O/U 0.5	0.92	63.2% over
Alvin Hines sig strikes O/U 39.5	44.8	58.4% over
Alvin Hines takedowns O/U 0.5	0.68	49.0% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Heavyweight sample too thin (3 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 12.9% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape