Jonny Parsons vs Jose Henrique

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Parsons 9-3-0

-0.24STR DIFF/MIN50% FIN

SLpM4.65

STR ACC44%

STR DEF60%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF66%

SUB AVG0.00

Henrique 9-1-0

+0.00STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM0.00

STR ACC0%

STR DEF0%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG0.00

Last 5 in the UFC — Parsons

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Danny Roberts	KO/TKO Punches	2	4:57
W	Solomon Renfro	S-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Henrique

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
No UFC bouts on record — UFC debut.

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

52.5%

MODEL — PARSONS

47.5%

MODEL — HENRIQUE

-110

FAIR — PARSONS

+110

FAIR — HENRIQUE

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — PARSONS10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — HENRIQUE

50.1%

46.5%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 16.9%

ROUND 29.8%

ROUND 313.0%

DECISION70.3%

70.3%

GOES THE DISTANCE

90.0%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

78.5%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

13.3

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Jonny Parsons sig strikes O/U 49.5	49.3	50.8% over
Jonny Parsons takedowns O/U 0.5	0.58	45.5% over
Jose Henrique sig strikes O/U 59.5	53.8	39.7% over
Jose Henrique takedowns O/U 1.5	1.12	30.8% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Jose Henrique is making a UFC debut — with no UFC bouts on record, the sim runs Henrique on league-average inputs, which makes this the least-informed sim on the card. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled Welterweight detail sample (35 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. Sim aggregate SUB share is 15.1% vs the calibration target 28.6%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape