Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Silva 19-7-0

-0.50STR DIFF/MIN67% FIN

SLpM2.24

STR ACC38%

STR DEF52%

TD AVG1.93

TD ACC50%

TD DEF26%

SUB AVG1.60

Fernandes 11-4-0

-1.80STR DIFF/MIN33% FIN

SLpM3.51

STR ACC46%

STR DEF53%

TD AVG0.42

TD ACC18%

TD DEF68%

SUB AVG0.20

Last 5 in the UFC — Silva

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Jasmine Jasudavicius	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Maycee Barber	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Dione Barbosa	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Viviane Araujo	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Ariane da Silva	U-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Fernandes

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Casey O'Neill	KO/TKO Punches	1	3:11
W	Julija Stoliarenko	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Wang Cong	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	3:49
W	Carli Judice	S-DEC	3	5:00
L	Tereza Bleda	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

74.7%

MODEL — SILVA

25.3%

MODEL — FERNANDES

-295

FAIR — SILVA

+295

FAIR — FERNANDES

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — SILVA10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — FERNANDES

62.4%

33.3%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 111.7%

ROUND 211.3%

ROUND 312.1%

DECISION64.9%

64.9%

GOES THE DISTANCE

84.4%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

72.9%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.6

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Karine Silva sig strikes O/U 39.5	39.3	51.7% over
Karine Silva takedowns O/U 0.5	0.96	65.9% over
Gabriella Fernandes sig strikes O/U 29.5	33.3	62.9% over
Gabriella Fernandes takedowns O/U 0.5	0.83	57.9% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Women's Flyweight sample too thin (15 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 29.6% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape