Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Suarez 13-1-0

+1.23STR DIFF/MIN67% FIN

SLpM2.86

STR ACC60%

STR DEF44%

TD AVG4.52

TD ACC45%

TD DEF57%

SUB AVG0.70

Jandiroba 23-4-0

-0.59STR DIFF/MIN44% FIN

SLpM2.27

STR ACC41%

STR DEF55%

TD AVG3.13

TD ACC39%

TD DEF72%

SUB AVG1.40

Last 5 in the UFC — Suarez

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Loopy Godinez	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	2:29
W	Amanda Lemos	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Zhang Weili	U-DEC	5	5:00
W	Jessica Andrade	SUB Guillotine Choke	2	1:31
W	Montana De La Rosa	SUB Guillotine Choke	2	2:51

Last 5 in the UFC — Jandiroba

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Tabatha Ricci	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Mackenzie Dern	U-DEC	5	5:00
W	Yan Xiaonan	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Amanda Lemos	SUB Armbar	2	4:48
W	Loopy Godinez	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

67.2%

MODEL — SUAREZ

32.8%

MODEL — JANDIROBA

-205

FAIR — SUAREZ

+205

FAIR — JANDIROBA

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — SUAREZ10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — JANDIROBA

66.5%

29.4%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 17.1%

ROUND 26.5%

ROUND 37.8%

DECISION78.6%

78.6%

GOES THE DISTANCE

90.8%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

83.6%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

13.6

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Tatiana Suarez sig strikes O/U 29.5	31.2	56.4% over
Tatiana Suarez takedowns O/U 1.5	1.92	59.3% over
Virna Jandiroba sig strikes O/U 29.5	15.8	3.4% over
Virna Jandiroba takedowns O/U 1.5	1.53	46.0% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (137 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Women's Strawweight sample too thin (23 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 18.3% vs the calibration target 30.7%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape