Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Bonfim 20-1-0

+1.15STR DIFF/MIN62% FIN

SLpM4.76

STR ACC47%

STR DEF64%

TD AVG2.57

TD ACC53%

TD DEF78%

SUB AVG1.00

Brady 19-2-0

+1.31STR DIFF/MIN44% FIN

SLpM4.08

STR ACC53%

STR DEF59%

TD AVG3.58

TD ACC51%

TD DEF86%

SUB AVG0.80

Last 5 in the UFC — Bonfim

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Belal Muhammad	U-DEC	5	5:00
W	Randy Brown	KO/TKO Knee	2	1:40
W	Stephen Thompson	S-DEC	3	5:00
W	Khaos Williams	SUB D'Arce Choke	2	4:58
W	Ange Loosa	U-DEC	3	5:00

Last 5 in the UFC — Brady

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Joaquin Buckley	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Michael Morales	KO/TKO Punches	1	3:27
W	Leon Edwards	SUB Guillotine Choke	4	1:39
W	Gilbert Burns	U-DEC	5	5:00
W	Kelvin Gastelum	SUB Kimura	3	1:43

Odds — Moneyline

Moneyline per book · BestFightOdds.

LINES COMING SOONNo book has posted a moneyline for this fight yet — prices for most of the card open closer to fight week and land here when they do.

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

50.7%

MODEL — BONFIM

49.3%

MODEL — BRADY

-103

FAIR — BONFIM

+103

FAIR — BRADY

No line posted yet for this fight — the model stands alone here; the market comparison appears when a book opens the fight.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — BONFIM10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — BRADY

42.4%

54.5%

Market — no line posted yet for this fight (lines coming soon), so there is no market bar: the sim stands alone.

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 18.1%

ROUND 29.0%

ROUND 39.1%

ROUND 49.2%

ROUND 510.0%

DECISION54.7%

54.7%

GOES THE DISTANCE

79.8%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

61.2%

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS

19.8

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Gabriel Bonfim sig strikes O/U 69.5	63.0	45.0% over
Gabriel Bonfim takedowns O/U 1.5	1.29	36.7% over
Sean Brady sig strikes O/U 82.5	74.7	45.3% over
Sean Brady takedowns O/U 1.5	2.10	61.0% over

▶ WATCH THE SIMone representative fight, animated Most typical of the 10,000: sim #2626 — Sean Brady by decision (49-47, 48-47, 48-47).

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled Welterweight detail sample (35 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — and with no market line posted yet, it stands as the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. Sim aggregate SUB share is 31.9% vs the calibration target 28.6%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Oct 26, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	No line posted yet — first price lands on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape